"As always, the truth is hard to find. Never rely on just one source of information, and apply critical thinking"
There is a lot of talk about population. Too many people, not enough people…. what is the truth? Well, let’s take a look at a possible scenario and apply some relevant statistics to provide insights to this question.
As for our scenario, let’s look at a population of 100,000 people in the North American context, (50,000 men and 50,000 women). To maintain the population at 100,000, each man and woman would need to produce another man and another woman to take over when they die. So, in a perfect world, 1 man and 1 woman would have 2 children, a boy and a girl, to keep the population at 100,000 into the future.
But, it is not a perfect world. What are some of the factors that may disrupt this perfectly balanced scenario, such as: accidental death, death by disease, same-sex couples not producing their own children, couples who decide not to or can’t have children, couples who only have 1 child.
Let’s take a look at the impact of some of these factors within the context of statistics from the North American population.
Average Rates per 100,000 Population (North American context)
(*Note: Cause of death factors not all inclusive. Estimates using death before approximate child-bearing age reached.)
· Accidental Death, Homicide, Suicide* [1] [2] [20] .......................... 30
· Infant Mortality [19] .........……………………………....................... 544
· Disease* [1] [2] [21] ……………………………………………............... 45
· Same-Sex Couples [8]
- Rate has doubled over the last decade from 3.5% to 7.1% of the population. [3]
- approx. 15% of same-sex couples have children (In 2019, 22.5% of female same-sex couple households had children under 18, compared with 6.6% of male same-sex couple households.)
- 43% of those have children through adoption
- 57% through surrogates, or ‘in vitro’
Number adjusted for above factors …...….... .......................... 6,000
· Couples having no children
(20% … and growing) [4] ………………………............................. 20,000
Approximate total of our population scenario not producing children: 26,619
Ok… so what does this mean?
Of the 100,000 population, 26,619 will be not be producing additions to the population, leaving 73,381 people to replenish the 100,000.
But there are also couples who will have only 1 child.
Couples having only 1 child [22] [23]*
USA – 21%, Canada – 26%, Mexico – 30% (estimate)*
One-Child families in other western cultures: (EU: 47%, UK: 42%) [22]
So, for our North American scenario, let’s use a conservative estimate of 25%.
That means that within our 100,000 population, these 25,000 people will produce 12,500 children, 1 per couple.
So, how many children must the remaining 48,381 people need to produce to make up the shortfall?
They need to produce 87,500 children. That’s approximately 1.8 children per person, or approximately 3.6 children per couple, or a fertility rate of 3.6*
(* Fertility Rate: the average number of children per woman)
How many couples do you know who are having 4 or more children? That’s an average family production just to sustain the 100,000 population scenario, which may explain the need for the current immigration rates in North America.
Do you still think there are too many people?
So, why is the world population growing?
The following 3 tables represent 2020 fertility rate data from the World Bank.[5] As of 2020, North American countries are behind the required fertility rate to maintain their population. (2023 fertility rates are expected to be even lower – Figure 1)
Other Western Cultures are also below the required fertility rate: [5]
So which countries are having all the children?
The top 16 countries producing the most people (highest fertility rates) are: [5]
The world fertility rate map (Figure 1) [24] tells a very interesting story. Of course culture, social norms, environmental conditions, family financial status, and government policies, all influence each country’s situation when it comes to fertility rate. The reality is that many country populations are currently not sustainable without immigration from other countries with higher fertility rates.
It is increasingly the case that couples within western cultures are focused on careers and seeking a higher standard of living, putting off having children to later in life, reducing the number of children a couple may have, if they have any at all. [9]
To make matters even worse, birth-rate tracking has indicated that heavily vaccinated countries, which are most, if not all of the western culture countries, are experiencing a dramatic fertility rate drop within the vaccinated population. A research paper recently published on the birth rates in 19 European countries, observed … “Nine months after peak vaccine uptake—the births decline.”
(Figure 2 - R Hagemann, U Lorre, et al. Danish data, pg. 31)
While governments are making it increasingly harder to discover recent birth-rate data, the available data from Sweden and the UK demonstrate the following.
Researchers found in Sweden that when overlaying the month-to-month change in births, that the strong dip in births beginning in November, December 2021, lined up very tightly with the percentage of people who were unvaccinated 9 months earlier. This was consistent with the R Hagemann, U Lorré, et al. findings. [6] (Figure 3)
And in the UK, after December 2021, the number of women giving birth dropped from about forty-thousand, down into the thirty-thousands. [7]
Below (Figure 5) is a graphic that represents the COVID 19 vaccination rate by country. [13]
When comparing the ‘Total Fertility Rate’ (Figure 1) graphic with the ‘Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine’ (Figure 5) ... an interesting correlation starts to present itself. Without further data, a direct causal relationship may not be determined. As discussed earlier, there are multiple factors that impact fertility rates. But it does stimulate one’s critical thinking and desire to know more through further analysis.
Even China has observed a steep decline in fertility rates through their last census. Following the ‘one-child’ policy that came into effect in 1976, the ‘two-child’ policy was introduced in 2016 to address a falling fertility rate. Now in 2021, China is going to a ‘three-child’ policy, and offering financial incentives for families having 3 children. [10]
Japan has also expressed concern about their own population. Recent statistics show that twice as many people in Japan are dying than being born. In 2022, Japan recorded just 799,728 births, which is the lowest on record. This is in comparison to their 1982 recorded births of 1.5 million. While in 2022 Japan experienced 1.58 million deaths. Japan has been recognized as one of the most expensive countries to raise a child. As a result, Japanese couples are putting off having children to later in life, and they are having less children. The current fertility rate in Japan of 1.3 is below the 2.1 needed to maintain their population, and experts fear that their sinking population will eventually threaten the country’s economy. [5]
Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida has voiced concern about the country’s declining population warning his citizens that ... “In thinking of the sustainability and inclusiveness of our nation’s
economy and society, we place child-rearing support as our most important policy.” [11]
A comprehensive study of population forecasts of 195 countries published in The Lancet (July 14, 2020) [12] also provides some very ominous insights.
Reposting of press release published by The Lancet [12]
By 2100, projected fertility rates in 183 of 195 countries will not be high enough to maintain current populations without liberal immigration policies.
World population forecasted to peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion people and fall to 8.8 billion by century’s end, with 23 countries seeing populations shrink by more than 50%, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain.
The Lancet study also warns that a lower than required fertility rate within a geo-economic region to maintain a stable population, will result in a declining working age population, and thus will have significant repercussions on a country’s economy. In their forecast scenario, both India and China will experience large declines in working age populations, with Nigeria exhibiting growth. By 2100, India will still have the largest working age population, followed by Nigeria, China and the USA, with the USA maintaining their place through immigration despite their low fertility rate.
The rate of “excess deaths” being experienced by many countries is also adding to the population alarm bells. [14] While many European and North American countries enforced strict lockdowns and vaccine mandates, Sweden abandoned strict Covid lockdowns, dropped face-mask recommendations, did not endorse vaccines for children, did not close schools, and kept everyday life closer to normal. Sweden was highly criticized at the time by the mainstream media and medical establishments ... [15]
Foreign Policy, Dec. 22, 2020
France 24, May 17, 2020
The New York Times, July 7, 2020
... but now, Sweden shows one of the lowest excess death rates in all of Europe, and has experienced much less damage to their economy, demonstrating that their approach to the pandemic certainly had merit. [15]
The damage caused by forced lockdowns and vaccine mandates has significantly impacted mental health [16] and fertility rates [17], further exacerbating the population decline situation in many western countries. For example, Spain experienced a 23% decline in birthrates during pandemic lockdowns. [18]
It seems that a culture’s approach to having children later in life, planning smaller families, focus on career by both sexes, a quest for a higher standard of living, the high vaccine uptake’s and lockdown mandate’s apparent impact on fertility rates and excess deaths, will be a culture’s eventual demise.
Do your own research, find multiple sources of information, and make your own conclusions.
References:
[1] NSC Injury Facts: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/deaths-by-demographics/deaths-by-age/data-details/
[4] HuffPost: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/childless-more-women-are-not-having-kids-says-census_n_7032258
[5] World Bank, Fertility Rate, total (births per woman), 2020. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?most_recent_value_desc=true
[6] R Hagemann, U Lorré, et al. [Decline in birth rates in Europe; in German]. Aug 25, 2022. Aletheia Scimed. https://www.aletheia-scimed.ch/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Geburtenrueckgang-Europe-DE_25082022_2.pdf
[7] UK Health Security Agency. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report. Week 5. Feb 2, 2023. P.18.
[8] United States Census Bureau. “Fifteen Percent of Same-Sex Couples Have Children in Their Household”. Sep 17, 2020, Danielle Taylor.
[9] Money.com, “Millennials Aren't Having Kids Because It's Too Expensive”. June 16, 2021. Ana Lucia Murillo. https://money.com/child-care-costs-declining-birth-rate/
[10] BBC.com, “China allows three children in major policy shift”. May 31, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57303592
[11] Fox News, “Japan’s prime minister raises alarm over historic population decline; it’s ‘now or never’ to reverse trend.” January 24, 2023. https://www.foxnews.com/world/japans-prime-minister-raises-alarm-historic-population-decline-its-now-never-reverse-trend
[12] The Lancet, “Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global burden of Disease Study.” July 14, 2020. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext
[13] Our World in Data, “Corona Virus (COVID-19) Vaccinations”, March 10, 2023. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[14] Sweden, ‘Covid and excess deaths’: a look at the data, March 10, 2023. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sweden-covid-and-excess-deaths-a-look-at-the-data/
[15] Sweden—Once Mocked for Its COVID Strategy—Now Has One of the Lowest COVID Mortality Rates in Europe, March 24, 2022. https://fee.org/articles/sweden-once-mocked-for-its-covid-strategy-now-has-one-of-the-lowest-covid-mortality-rates-in-europe/
[16] Lockdowns doubled your risk of mental health symptoms, April 11, 2022. https://theconversation.com/lockdowns-doubled-your-risk-of-mental-health-symptoms-180953
[17] The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions, January 2023. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X22001101
[18] First evidence from Spain: the impact of lockdown on fertility, March 2021. https://unherd.com/thepost/first-evidence-from-spain-the-impact-of-lockdown-on-fertility/
[19] Deaths and Mortality, (USA data), 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
[20] Accidental deaths statistics, Sept 12, 2022. https://www.finder.com/accidental-deaths-statistics
[21] Death rate in the United States in 2019, by age and gender, Oct 5, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/
[22] How Many Families Worldwide Have Only One Child?, August 3, 2021. https://www.onlychildworld.com/blog-posts/how-many-families-worldwide-have-only-one-child
[23] Fertility in Mexico: Trends and Forecasts, https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd_egm_200203_countrypapers_fertility_in_mexico_tuiran_partida_mojarro_zuniga.pdf
[24] Total Fertility Rate (Graphic by country), 2023. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/total-fertility-rate